AGP Executive Report

Green Finance: BRAC Bank plans Bangladesh’s first green bond aligned with central-bank policy, raising Tk1,000 crore for renewable energy and efficiency projects. Market Flows: Foreign investors pulled Rs 48,056 crore from Indian equities in October as oil prices, geopolitical risks and weak earnings weighed on sentiment; eight of the country’s top 10 firms lost Rs 1.56 lakh crore in value last week. Nigeria Markets: NGX trading reached ₦15.06 trillion in the first nine months, with domestic investors accounting for nearly 90% as foreign participation fell. AI Credit Risk: CoreWeave’s shares and bonds slid amid scrutiny of its roughly $50 billion debt load; bond yields climbed toward 16%, intensifying questions about how AI infrastructure spending will be financed. Credit Rating: Moody’s affirmed ICIEC’s Aa3 insurance strength rating with a stable outlook, citing strong liquidity, capital and risk management.

Market Volatility: Oil’s surge above $116 a barrel and rising inflation concerns pressured U.S. stocks, while AI spending doubts drove investors toward safer assets. Small caps outperformed over the week as Treasury yields eased, but markets face fresh tests from earnings and the Fed. AI and Stability Risks: Apollo economist Torsten Slok questioned whether returns from AI compute can justify its cost, and financial-stability officials flagged the AI boom and geopolitical uncertainty as risks. Bank Funding: Doha Bank raised $500 million with a five-year bond, attracting $1.7 billion in orders and pricing 30 basis points inside initial guidance. AU Small Finance Bank reported a 53% jump in quarterly profit to ₹858 crore. Sovereign Borrowing: The IMF’s Sri Lanka program assumes $3 billion in sovereign bond issuance across 2027 and 2028, though the government says any decision is its own. Ghana plans to borrow GH¢15.38 billion domestically in the fourth quarter and buy back 2027 debt. Crypto: Bitcoin fell below $80,000 amid heavy liquidations and ETF outflows; investor Arthur Hayes said he had sold about $26 million in tokens and was waiting for clearer market signals.

Energy Finance: Fourth Partner Energy secured ₹750 crore from Tata Capital for a Maharashtra wind-solar project with battery storage, with data centres among interested customers. Market Volatility: AI spending concerns and an oil-price surge rattled stocks; the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.9% Thursday, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 5% as investors weighed inflation and the Federal Reserve’s next move. Indian Banking: AU Small Finance Bank’s second-quarter profit jumped 53% to ₹858 crore, helped by higher interest income and improved asset quality. Valuations and Earnings: A Bajaj Asset Management report says Indian equity valuations have eased from 2024 peaks as earnings momentum builds, forecasting BSE 500 growth of 17% in FY27. Currency Pressure: The naira weakened to 1,362 per dollar in Nigeria’s official market as foreign-exchange demand surged.

Market Sell-Off: U.S. stocks fell Friday as oil surged to a six-month high amid rising U.S.-Iran tensions. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year reaching 5%, as investors braced for next week’s Fed meeting and major earnings. Prediction Markets: Robinhood says traders are moving beyond sports into economic and crypto contracts; bets on the Fed’s rate decision were its biggest event contracts in September. Midterm-related trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has topped $1.4 billion, intensifying scrutiny of the fast-growing sector. Tokenized Funds: JPMorgan Asset Management has expanded access to two tokenized money market funds on Solana for qualified U.S. investors. The fund interests are not bank deposits and are not FDIC-insured. Banking: FHLBank Chicago reported third-quarter net income of $145 million, down from $185 million a year earlier, while assets and member advances grew. Currencies: Nigeria’s naira weakened in both official and parallel markets, despite a sharp rise in interbank turnover.

Market Turmoil: Global shares were mixed Friday after tech-led Wall Street losses, as doubts over AI spending weighed on stocks and Middle East tensions pushed oil above $114 a barrel. India’s benchmark indexes fell more than 2% for the week. Investors are watching next week’s Fed decision and major tech earnings; the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 5%. Bank Funding: QNB raised QAR750 million in its largest Qatari-riyal Shogun bond, expanding its access to Japanese investors and diversifying funding. AI Financing: Meta approved non-voting shares to help fund AI expansion and acquisitions without changing current shareholders’ voting power. Bank Results: Ujjivan Small Finance Bank posted record quarterly profit of Rs365 crore, prompting BOB Capital Markets to raise its target price to Rs78. Credit Oversight: India’s National Housing Bank appointed a forensic auditor for SRG Housing Finance amid allegations of fictitious loans and possible fund diversion.

Market Turmoil: AI spending fears drove a global tech selloff, with Meta, down 7%, facing questions over rising debt and negative free cash flow. Brent crude topped $112 a barrel amid Middle East tensions, while investors sought Treasuries and gold fell. Financial Sector Risks: A new MIT assessment warns AI could create risks that fall outside traditional operational controls, putting pressure on financial firms to strengthen oversight and accountability. Bank Funding: Fairstone Bank raised €500 million in its first covered-bond sale, drawing three times the amount offered and broadening its international investor base. Investor Flows: Nigeria’s mutual fund assets reached N9.89 trillion, with money market funds accounting for nearly 68%—a sign of heavy concentration in cash-like investments. Public Finances: Malaysia estimates taxpayers still face RM20.1 billion in net 1MDB-related costs after RM31.3 billion in assets and funds were recovered.

Market Stress: Asian shares extended losses as technology selling pushed China’s CSI 300 into bear-market territory. Indonesia’s president rejected MSCI’s warning that the country could lose emerging-market status, a move that risks major capital outflows. Bonds and Rates: French 10-year yields hit 5% for the first time since 2002, shaking crowded bond trades and prompting hedge funds to cut exposure. Investors are also watching next week’s Fed meeting for clues on rates; the ringgit edged lower against the US dollar. Banking and Finance: Barclays plans 5,000 job cuts as it targets more than £1.1 billion in savings, citing technology upgrades and AI. Malaysia retained its top global Islamic-finance ranking, with Islamic capital markets reaching RM2.7 trillion. Funding and Earnings: Qatar National Bank raised QAR750 million through its largest-ever Qatari-riyal Shogun bond, tapping Japanese investors. Westports shares rose after quarterly profit jumped 26%, while Mahindra Finance reported a 55% increase in quarterly profit. Trade Finance: The African Development Bank approved a €40 million facility to help Cameroon’s AFG Bank finance businesses’ imports, production and exports.

Tech Earnings: Meta beat forecasts with third-quarter revenue up 26% to $64.6 billion, sending shares higher after hours. It plans to issue nonvoting shares to help fund AI investment, even as costs surge and operating margins narrow. Global Markets: US indexes rose on upbeat AI-related earnings, while France’s 10-year borrowing cost topped 5% for the first time since 2002, renewing concern over the country’s finances. AI Financing Risks: Bond investors are questioning the debt burden behind the AI buildout, with SpaceX facing higher financing costs and concerns about heavily leveraged companies such as CoreWeave. A US 20-year Treasury auction drew a 5.42% median yield. Household Finance: US mortgage applications fell 5.3% last week despite a 7.41% 30-year rate, while New Zealand housing affordability was little changed in September.

Global Markets: Stocks edged higher as early earnings beat expectations, with 86% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far topping estimates. But rising AI spending and bond-market stress remain risks. Bonds and Oil: France’s 10-year yield touched 5% for the first time since 2002, as political unrest and budget worries weighed on debt. Oil climbed back toward $110 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns. Indonesia: President Prabowo accused MSCI of trying to intimidate the country after its warning of a possible market-status downgrade triggered a historic selloff. Singapore’s GIC and Temasek denied claims they sought to influence MSCI. AI and Equities: SpaceX shares jumped about 9% premarket after the company reported $4.4 billion in quarterly profit, powered by soaring AI revenue; capital spending nearly tripled. Banking and FX: Fidelity D&D Bancorp reported a 21% rise in third-quarter net income, while Zimbabwe’s CBZ Bank is pursuing a conditional $50 million trade-finance facility. Sudan’s pound sank to a record 10,000 per dollar on the parallel market.

Banking: Bridgewater Bancshares reported third-quarter net income of $15 million, up from $11.6 million a year earlier, as deposit growth and a wider net interest margin supported results. Markets: AI-related jitters and rate concerns weighed on global technology shares, while a sharp oil-price pullback helped lift U.S. stocks. China and Hong Kong shares also weakened as stronger growth data reduced hopes for fresh stimulus. Regulation: Utah sued prediction-market operator Kalshi, alleging illegal gambling and seeking to halt its operations in the state and recover $30 million to $60 million in profits. Trade and investment: The U.S. set a goal of more than doubling trade with India to $500 billion within three years, as officials said negotiations on a bilateral deal were nearing completion.

Capital Markets: Mynt, parent of Philippine payments platform GCash, began trading in a high-profile IPO as President Ferdinand Marcos promised reforms to attract investors. The government has cut the stock transaction tax to 0.1% from 0.6%. Corporate Finance: AirAsia shares fell as soaring jet-fuel costs and foreign-exchange losses spurred fundraising efforts; Malaysia’s Finance Ministry said it had made no commitment to provide support. Trade: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington and New Delhi are close to a deal, with energy, investment and trade on the agenda in Mumbai. Market Risk: Oil above $110 and AI concerns weighed on global shares, though U.S. tech stocks rebounded. Private-credit valuations and debt-funded AI infrastructure remain in focus as borrowing costs test investor confidence. Digital Assets: Germany’s Sparkassen savings banks began offering customers crypto trading through their banking app, broadening access to major tokens.

Rates & Bonds: Morgan Stanley Investment Management says rising US yields reflect resilient growth, not an immediate warning for equities, though family offices surveyed by Deutsche Bank cite rates and bond yields as the biggest growth risk. Treasuries fell as tech shares rebounded, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.14%; China plans a liquidity facility to curb forced bond sales. Markets: US stocks closed mixed Monday, with the Nasdaq up 1.1% as investors returned to AI shares. European stocks fell amid unrest in France, which also pressured French lenders and the euro. Deals & Funding: Tradeweb agreed to buy credit-trading platform Trumid for about $1.97 billion, while Walmart is seeking to raise $6 billion through US and Canadian bond sales. Asia: Indian shares have slumped amid foreign outflows, while China’s export strength is supporting the yuan despite weak domestic demand. Ethereum options also show traders paying more for near-term downside protection.

Asian Markets: India’s Sensex fell 876 points and the Nifty closed below 22,900 as private-bank shares and weak global sentiment weighed; Taiwan stocks and its currency also faced pressure over AI valuations and borrowing costs. Bond Risks: France’s unrest is adding to investor concerns over spending and debt: its 10-year yield rose to 4.86%, widening the gap with Germany. AI and Investing: The UK’s FCA warned that consumers may mistake chatbot responses for regulated financial advice; 40% of young investors surveyed believed chatbots were FCA-regulated. Anthropic, preparing for a possible IPO, plans to put 5% of its shares into a public-benefit fund, subject to shareholder approval. African Finance: The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index reached its highest score in a decade, while Tanzania’s CRDB Bank secured $111 million in financing to strengthen capital and expand lending to small businesses and support housing. Currency Outlook: Nigeria’s naira is forecast to trade between ₦1,290 and ₦1,370 per dollar this month, with reserves supporting stability but seasonal demand for dollars limiting gains.

Equities: A wobbling AI trade faces an earnings test: the S&P 500 fell 2% last week and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5%, with results from Meta, Lam Research and Texas Instruments in focus. CoreWeave’s roughly $50 billion in debt is adding to concerns over AI investment returns. Rates & Credit: Higher oil prices and rising bond yields are lifting borrowing costs and weighing on dividend shares; Canadian telecom stocks have slid amid yield pressure and nearly $100 billion in combined debt. Banking: YES Bank reported a 65% rise in quarterly profit to ₹1,080 crore, but has yet to book the potential impact of a ₹5,217 crore AT-1 bond ruling. Punjab & Sind Bank’s profit climbed 39.66%. Digital Assets: South Korea’s crypto industry is pressing to delay planned taxation, with 93% of surveyed experts citing gaps in transaction records and unclear rules. Latvia, by contrast, has approved a tax on crypto withdrawals above investors’ deposits.

Bank Earnings: YES Bank’s second-quarter profit rose 65% to ₹1,080 crore, while Punjab & Sind Bank reported a 40% gain. YES Bank said the impact of an AT1 bond ruling is not yet reflected in its results. AI Debt & Markets: Investor caution is growing as AI-related stocks retreat and CoreWeave bond yields top 15%, raising concerns about refinancing costs. The IMF has also warned that rising bond yields could worsen the global debt outlook. India’s External Balance: Services exports are losing ground: net services exports fell 10% year over year to $16.9 billion in September as imports rose faster, weakening a key offset to the widening goods trade deficit. Payments & Energy: The UAE and Singapore central banks discussed cooperation on digital currencies, cross-border payments and green finance. In Nigeria, regulators approved a commodities exchange to facilitate petroleum trading and improve price transparency. Cross-Border Risk: A UK court froze Vietjet’s worldwide assets in a dispute over roughly $250 million in unpaid aircraft leases.

Market Volatility: Wall Street fell sharply as doubts over AI spending and oil above $100 weighed on stocks. Morgan Stanley says strong earnings could help global shares recover, but rising bond yields remain a risk. AI Financing: AI-related debt issuance dropped to $23 billion in September from June’s $113 billion record, as investors question whether infrastructure spending will pay off. Companies have raised $466 billion in AI-linked debt so far this year. Banking: Yes Bank’s quarterly profit rose 65%, but a Supreme Court ruling on AT-1 bonds could cut its core capital ratio by 250 basis points. Axis Bank also reported higher profit and improved asset quality. Currency Markets: The rupee gained 1.9% over the week, closing at 94.71 per dollar, as traders watched the RBI’s currency defence. Energy Risk: Pakistan says it has secured supplies through November, but attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure pose a threat to its longer-term economic outlook.