AGP Executive Report

Market Selloff: Hot U.S. inflation and worries over AI valuations sent tech shares lower across Asia and Europe. South Korea’s market plunged more than 7%, while U.S. Treasury yields climbed, intensifying pressure on growth stocks. Banking: Yes Bank shares tumbled as much as 20% after India’s Supreme Court ruled its 2020 write-off of ₹8,415 crore in AT1 bonds illegal. The bank’s potential repayment burden remains unclear. India’s IDBI Sale: The Cabinet approved Fairfax’s ₹52,878-crore purchase of a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank; shares fell about 7% after the approval. Fund Flows: Jupiter’s assets under management reached a record £75.9 billion, with £700 million in net inflows during the quarter. Green Finance: First Abu Dhabi Bank issued AED1 billion in digital green notes, a regional first, with proceeds earmarked for climate and environmental projects.

Market Selloff: Hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation revived rate-hike fears, pushing Treasury yields higher and sending the Nasdaq down 1.9%. AI Financing Risks: CoreWeave shares plunged 15.5% as bond yields topped 15%, raising concerns about debt-funded AI expansion and dragging down Oracle and other tech stocks. Banking: Bank of America fell nearly 5% after missing earnings and booking a $1.2 billion penalty tied to anti-money-laundering and sanctions violations. Digital Assets: Standard Chartered opened direct bitcoin and ether trading to eligible professional wealth clients in the UAE, with plans to expand to other markets. India’s Banking Sector: Fairfax won approval to buy a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank for ₹52,878 crore, in a landmark financial-sector foreign investment deal. Global Risks: The IMF urged the U.S. to rein in deficits as bond yields surge and called on China to shift away from export-led growth.

Market Pulse: Asian shares mostly fell as Wall Street edged back from records, while European stocks rose on strong ASML results. Investors awaited US inflation data, with economists forecasting a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.6% annual inflation. Corporate Finance: ReNew secured $100 million in 10-year financing from Dutch development bank FMO for renewable energy projects under construction in India, diversifying its funding sources. SME Funding: Malaysia’s 2027 budget plans a record RM57 billion in loan and financing guarantees, including RM6.6 billion in microfinance, to support businesses. African Markets: A new index found financial markets improving in 21 of 29 countries, but thin trading remains a barrier to investment. Climate Bonds: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank plans another climate adaptation bond in 2027, after its latest AUD$500 million issue drew demand more than four times the amount offered.

Market Turmoil: An AI-linked selloff pushed emerging-market stocks down 2.2%, their steepest drop since July, and weakened key Asian currencies. Wall Street ended little changed as chip shares fell and investors weighed mixed bank results ahead of US inflation data. Banking: The US Treasury fined Bank of America $1.2 billion over alleged failures to address money-laundering and sanctions risks. Citi’s wealth division reported net new asset inflows more than doubling year over year to $38 billion, lifting its return on tangible common equity to 14.3%. Bonds and Outlook: Fitch said rising yields are adding pressure to developed-market debt, which could exceed $75 trillion. The IMF warned that an AI investment bust, heavier debt and prolonged Middle East conflict could threaten growth and financial stability. BlackRock turned neutral on US stocks and favored short-term Treasuries as yields climbed. Sustainable Finance: RBC issued a C$500 million Indigenous bond to fund loans for Indigenous communities and businesses in Canada.

Banking: American Express faces a record $350 million penalty after US regulators said weak anti-money-laundering controls let about $13 billion in suspicious transactions go undetected over 11 years. The bank must overhaul its compliance program and bring in an independent reviewer. Bank Earnings: JPMorgan’s third-quarter profit rose to $15.3 billion as investment banking fees gained 14% and markets revenue climbed 15%, buoyed by volatile markets and strong trading. Markets: AI-linked chip stocks tumbled as investors weighed Chinese competition, high valuations and the cost of infrastructure spending. The IMF warned that a sharp pullback in AI investment could hit global growth and asset prices. India: Equity mutual funds drew record monthly inflows in September, helping cushion shares against foreign investor selling and a market slump.

Market Pulse: Global stocks were mixed Monday as oil rose after attacks on a Saudi airport; the dollar hit an 18-month high, while tech weighed on the Nasdaq. Investors are looking to US CPI and big-bank earnings for direction. Rates & Bonds: Long-term Treasury yields have surged, pushing 30-year mortgage rates to nearly 7.4% and prompting hedging that adds pressure to bonds. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rates may need to rise further to cool demand, while aiming to protect jobs. Equities: AI-led gains mask narrowing market breadth: Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia now account for about 22% of the S&P 500, fuelling concerns about the rally’s durability as earnings expectations rise. Banking: Singapore bank shares fell 6% to 10% amid yield concerns, though analysts see no clear signs of worsening credit quality. Zenith Bank lifted its interim dividend 20% despite lower first-half profit after tax. Currencies & Digital Finance: Nigeria’s FX turnover nearly doubled to $3.37 billion as spot trading rebounded. Jamaica’s Senate approved a licensing and oversight framework for virtual-asset providers, as regulators warn of stablecoin risks.

Markets: European shares rose as oil prices eased on reports of a Russia-Ukraine energy truce, though Kyiv said it had not been told of any deal. US inflation data and earnings are now in focus. Bonds & Rates: A global bond sell-off is lifting borrowing costs, but analysts say higher yields could leave central banks with less need to raise rates. India’s 10-year yield hit a three-year high as RBI measures weighed on bond demand. Currencies: The RBI tightened rules on rupee derivatives to curb hedging demand as the currency remains under pressure. Nigeria’s FX trading nearly doubled to $3.37 billion last week, largely on stronger spot transactions. Banking & Finance: Malaysia’s Digital Nasional secured RM5.2 billion ($1.27 billion) in syndicated Islamic financing to refinance debt and support its 5G network. Ghana’s banking-sector assets rose 20.5% to about GH¢500 billion. Corporate: Recruitment firm Hays fell sharply after reporting a 7% drop in permanent-hiring fees, pointing to continued caution among employers.

Rates & Bonds: A global bond selloff is tightening financial conditions, prompting traders to cut expected rate hikes across eight major economies by nearly 200 basis points since mid-September. U.S. stocks will trade Monday, but the bond market will be closed for the holiday. Equities & Energy: Australian shares face a mixed start, with strong U.S. earnings hopes countered by rising yields and oil-market risks tied to Middle East tensions and supply disruptions. Capital Markets: Morgan Stanley expects UAE IPO activity and credit markets to rebound once regional conflict stabilizes; the country has had no listings so far this year. Banking: JPMorgan plans to launch a merchant bank in Nigeria by year-end, while Ghana’s central bank warns lenders to strengthen controls on cross-border lending and foreign-currency exposure.

Bond Markets: Global bond turmoil is pushing up borrowing costs, with heavily indebted developing nations bearing the sharpest strain as debt payments squeeze public spending. Rising oil prices are adding to inflation and yield concerns ahead of this week’s IMF and World Bank meetings. Equities: Indian shares face a test as investors weigh crude above $100 a barrel, inflation data and earnings from Wipro, HCL Tech and others; Friday’s rebound ended an eight-week losing streak, but foreign selling and a weaker rupee remain risks. IPO Pipeline: A dozen Indian companies, led by Jio Platforms, are preparing October offerings after IPOs raised more than ₹1.1 lakh crore this year. Market Reform: The Philippines will adopt international pricing conventions for peso government bonds from January 2027, a move intended to attract foreign investors, deepen liquidity and potentially lower borrowing costs. Banking: Poonawalla Fincorp’s quarterly profit nearly quintupled to ₹375 crore, though analysts remain split on whether the strong results can turn around its share-price slide.

Currency & Rates: The RBI stepped up support for the rupee near a record low, arranging dollar supplies for state oil companies and tightening rules on currency derivatives. Bond Markets: Rising yields are raising financing costs as tech firms continue borrowing heavily for AI infrastructure; nearly $500 billion in AI-related debt has been issued this year, while JetBlue bonds weakened amid refinancing concerns. Banking: Small finance banks paid higher rates for foreign-currency deposits but captured less than 1% of inflows, highlighting their challenge in competing with larger lenders. Pakistan’s central bank, meanwhile, eased housing-finance documentation requirements. Equities: Avenue Supermarts reported an 8.5% rise in quarterly net profit, with revenue up 17.7%. Investor Protection: India’s SEC warned investors away from unregistered platform WayvePay, which promoted access to Dangote Refinery’s proposed IPO. Trade: India and the US have broadly concluded negotiations on a trade deal, with legal details still being finalized; the EU and China also reached a preliminary understanding on trade measures affecting hybrid-car exports.

SME Financing: Malaysia’s 2027 budget lifts financing and guarantees for smaller businesses to RM57 billion, while offering tax relief and export funding. Currency Controls: India’s central bank cut the threshold for unhedged rupee derivatives to $5 million, introduced a 20% reserve requirement on specified contracts and barred rebooking cancelled trades. Trade: The EU and China agreed to explore tariff cuts and ease market-access concerns; a separate understanding could halve projected Chinese hybrid-car exports to Europe over four years. Bond Markets: Lagos State opened a 10-year bond offer of up to ₦200 billion, with indicative annual coupons of 16.5%–16.75%. Financial Oversight: EU finance ministers backed reforms that would give ESMA direct oversight of some major cross-border market operators. Nigeria’s FX Position: The central bank says net reserves have reached $46 billion, strengthening the country’s capacity to meet foreign-currency obligations and supporting investor confidence.

Wall Street: U.S. stocks rebounded Friday after a sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, the Nasdaq 0.6% and the Dow 0.8%. Elevated bond yields and doubts about AI investment returns kept investors on edge. Bond Markets: France’s borrowing costs remain in focus: its 10-year yield reached about 4.9%, the highest since 2002, as concerns over debt and deficits spread pressure to other European borrowers. Trade: The EU and China struck a preliminary deal that could halve Chinese hybrid-car exports to Europe and ease tensions, while leaving key details to be worked out. Energy: Oil prices eased after President Trump said Russia would release diesel supplies, but disrupted refining and shipping continue to squeeze fuel markets.

Bond Markets: U.S. Treasury yields have reached 24-year highs as investors demand more compensation for long-term risk, pushing up borrowing costs and adding pressure to markets. Asian Markets: CXMT shares fell 7.79% in their biggest one-day drop since July’s IPO, amid concerns memory-chip prices may be peaking. Standard Chartered executives say the yuan’s use in trade and financing is growing, though its global role remains limited. Corporate Results: Delta posted record September-quarter revenue and expects December-quarter revenue growth of about 20%; it plans to repay more than $2 billion of debt this year. Capital Markets: Airtel Money began trading on the London Stock Exchange after a £5.3 billion IPO, offering investors exposure to its African financial-services business. India Equities: The Sensex rose 1.23% and the Nifty 1.30%, led by IT stocks after TCS results; softer oil and a firmer rupee supported the rebound, though foreign investor selling remains a risk. Disclosure Rules: Germany’s BaFin fined Volkswagen €1.2 million for failing to promptly disclose price-sensitive information.

Market Volatility: Oil’s surge toward $106 a barrel and sharp swings in Treasury yields rattled global markets. U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Nasdaq down 1.3% as technology shares slid. AI Trade: Nvidia, Micron and other chipmakers fell after OpenAI’s reported $50 billion revenue run rate came in below earlier estimates, renewing questions about AI valuations and heavy spending. Banking & Digital Assets: TD won approval to buy back up to $10 billion of shares, while BNY expanded regulated crypto custody for institutional clients in Europe under MiCA. Capital Raising: Tencent is weighing a $5 billion bond sale to fund its AI push. Trade & Currencies: China and the EU held talks in Beijing amid rising trade tensions; China’s central bank rejected claims it seeks an export advantage through yuan devaluation. The New Zealand dollar was little changed.

Market Selloff: Global shares slid as oil topped $103 a barrel amid attacks on Gulf shipping, reviving inflation fears and pushing bond yields higher. European markets led losses, while Asian stocks also weakened; a stronger dollar added pressure on the euro. AI Financing: Tencent is weighing an offshore bond sale of up to $5 billion to fund its AI ambitions, joining tech companies borrowing heavily for computing infrastructure as investors question the risks of the spending boom. Private Markets: Investors are increasingly targeting Asian private markets for AI-related opportunities, including data centres, power generation and chip financing. UK Asset Management: Standard Life shares dropped after Aberdeen sold about half its stake for £436 million, cutting its holding to roughly 5.2%. Currency Policy: China’s central bank reiterated that market forces should play a decisive role in setting the yuan’s exchange rate.

Bond Selloff: Global stocks fell as long-dated U.S. yields hit their highest levels in 24 years. Fed minutes showed most officials expected another rate hike this year, while some urged preparations for Treasury-market stress. Currency Pressure: Iraq reset its official rate to 1,500 dinars per dollar as disrupted oil shipments strain public finances; the market rate rose above 1,700. Crypto Markets: Coinbase launched a regulated route for eligible U.S. traders to access global crypto derivatives through its Deribit integration. Trade and Growth: The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August, its largest since March 2025, as imports outpaced exports. Goldman Sachs says China’s export growth may face a longer-term ceiling if overseas demand cannot keep up. Public Finance: Malaysia says it has recovered RM31.3 billion linked to 1MDB, but faces RM20.1 billion in remaining obligations if no further assets are recovered.